Living in the New Atlantis
Knowing your home could be under water in 300 years changes your perspective on things
I know what you’re thinking. “Oh no, here’s another climate crisis nut who’s going to try convince us we’re all going to die in 12 years”. You’re wrong, it’s 10 years now. No, I jest! I’m not a climate alarmist. Nor am I a climate change skeptic. I think humans will — most probably — find a way to deal with a lot of the negative effects of the climate, but I’m also a realist.
I live in the Netherlands, one of the countries in the world with the most to lose due to increasing sea levels. In fact, it’s pretty common knowledge that about a third of the Netherlands is underwater. Although the U.N. Climate Panel seems to be confused about this. You’d think they would get this right?
This all matters to me because 97% of scientists, acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, i.e. an increase in global temperature that is linked to human activity. Added to this, some models are predicting a 2 meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century, if no emissions changes are made, i.e. status quo. Given this context, I have to start thinking about the real possibility that my current home country, where my kids are growing up, will not exist, by 2300.
Dr. Peter Munneke’s phrasing is more dramatic. He argues that it isn’t a question of if, but rather a question of when. He says: “Therefore, the question is not if the Netherlands will disappear below sea level, but when. I don’t mean this to be taken in the alarmist way. It’s just looking at all of the lessons that physics and the geological archives are teaching us.”
A note about the Dutch
Being half Dutch, and after 2 years living in the Netherlands, I can tell you at least one thing I have learnt about the Dutch. They are not alarmists! They literally created a country below sea-level — on purpose — after all. However, they do take water management very seriously. For them is it a matter of life or death. They have spent vast amounts of time and resources on holding the North Sea at bay. The Dutch are not Democratic Party members looking to advance a social agenda under the guise of climate change. I can assure you, they have no interest whatsoever in whether America is going to cancel all it’s student debt. They are honest, hardworking, people trying to protect their homeland from the sea.
The Dutch are not Democratic Party members looking to advance a social agenda under the guise of climate change. I can assure you, they have no interest whatsoever in whether America is going to cancel all it’s student debt. They are honest, hardworking, people trying to protect their homeland from the sea.
You should read page 21 of the Delta Works Report 2019, and you should take it seriously! The Dutch do!
So William what would your house look like in the year 4000?
Well I went into a time machine, traveled to 4000 and took a picture of my house. Here it is:
If this doesn’t convince you have a look at this before and after picture, given a 5 meter rise in sea levels. Disclaimer: This model does not take into account some existing, and any future, sea defenses. However, out of all the online tools I found it to be the most accurate.
In case you didn’t notice. That’s Amsterdam in the middle of the first picture; the second picture shows a “new” city called Isle of Amsterdam.
And yet, a 5 meter rise is predicted within the next 2000 years. This is not just speculation… Based on what we know right now, it’s probably going to be worse! Imagine the extent of the loss in human history.
Based on what we know right now, it’s probably going to be worse!
What’s the good news?
There is of course light at the end of the tunnel. The Dutch are notoriously skilled at keeping themselves dry, and the country is well developed. It certainly is not too late for action, and the Netherlands has numerous ideas on how to combat rising sea levels. Note that this article quotes incorrect statistics on the current Dutch area under sea level (maybe they have been reading too much from the U.N. Climate Panel). However, the idea of extending the shore line is valid.
But what about others?
Whilst the Dutch might have the knowledge and resources to divert disaster, many other countries are not so lucky. Think about the plight of the Marshall Islands. With a mean elevation of 0 meters they don’t exactly have a lot of wiggle room, although they are free to emigrate to the U.S.A. for what it’s worth.
Maybe at more risk, with no get out of jail free card is the Maldives. With the dubious title of the World’s Lowest high Point, at an unbelievable 2.4 meters, the risks are very clear.
The point is that there are numerous, low-lying, poorer countries, who are facing imminent threat within the next 100 years. We cannot — and should not — sit idly by as their homes disappear.
The point is that there are numerous, low-lying, poorer countries, who are facing imminent threat within the next 100 years. We cannot- and should not- sit idly by as their homes disappear.
The collection of “ vulnerable” countries have formed a Forum which is interesting, and includes a participant list. This gives you an idea of how many countries are at imminent risk, and the task ahead of us.
Conclusion
This all seems so far away right now, and it’s easy to dismiss the whole thing as merely an academic exercise. But it is not. This really is discussion that will shape the future of mankind. We might long dead when the worst happens, our children’s children will probably also be long dead, but our land, our history, and our ancestors deserve our protection.
So often the debate is dominated by skeptics or alarmists, who do a good job at minimizing real public involvement through divisive and unrealistic messages. Don’t fall into this trap.
A lot of this might not come to pass, but based on our current knowledge, it is almost inevitable. Maybe it won’t happen by the year 2300, maybe it will only come to pass in the year 4000? But until we stop the rhetoric, embrace the science, and get real, I’m living in the new Atlantis.
But until we stop the rhetoric, embrace the science, and get real, I’m living in the new Atlantis.
